DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/04 10:42
Corn Slightly Lower, Soybeans Slightly Higher Midday Wednesday
Corn is 2 to 3 cents lower, soybeans are 4 to 6 cents higher and wheat is 1
to 14 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow down 275 points. The U.S. Dollar
Index is 0.20 higher. Interest rate products are mostly lower. Energies are
mostly lower with crude off $1.60. Livestock trade is firmer. Precious metals
are weaker with gold down $5.70.
Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower with trade continuing to migrate to the
$5.50 area as range-bound action continues with flat spread action and little
fresh news. Ethanol margins will continue to see pressure with energies
sliding, along with the coming shift to cheaper fall blends, while corn remains
rangebound with the weekly report showing production down 1,000 barrels a day
and stocks down 84,000 barrels. Brazil will continue to move along with the end
of the second crop season and estimates still trending lower. Corn basis
continues to fade with cash inverses likely to see more pressure as early
harvest gets going to the south. On the September contract, resistance remains
at $5.53 20-day moving average, which we are below at midday, with further
support at the lower Bollinger Band at $5.33.
Soybeans are 4 to 6 cents higher at midday with trade finding light buying
after washing out on Tuesday with improvement expected in the extended forecast
and meal leading products Wednesday. Meal is $5.00 to $6.00 higher and oil is
0.70 cent to 0.80 cent lower. The weather pattern looks dry short term with
better rains the second week. South America has a declining ship line up while
the run in canola values turned more sideways, keeping a lid on oil values as
well, along with crude oil weakness. Basis levels have been flat to weaker in
recent days. On the September soybean chart, resistance is at the 20-day at
$13.66, which we fell below last week, with the lower Bollinger Band at $13.17
as support with $13.00 below that.
Wheat trade is 1 to 14 cents lower with Chicago action leading as winter
wheats fade from the fresh highs scored again Wednesday morning. The dollar has
settled into a range around 92 points on the index. The U.S. has pushed above
world values, which should limit exports and upside short term unless
continental values can catch up further. KC holds at 22-cent discount to
Chicago, widening a bit with Minneapolis at a 182-cent premium, fading back to
the lower end of the range. KC September on the chart has support at the 20-day
at $6.51 with resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $7.17.
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
(c) Copyright 2021 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
For more free DTN information sent right to your email each morning - click here
to sign up for DTN Snapshot.