USDA Cattle Inventory Report             01/30  14:56

Jan. 1 Cattle Inventory Down Slightly From Year Ago

By DTN Staff

Cattle Inventory by Class and Calf Crop - U.S.: Jan. 1, 2025, and 2026

Class                               2025         2026   % of previous year
                                (1,000 head) (1,000 head)     (percent)
All cattle and calves    86,472.2     86,155.3          100
All cows and heifers              37,272.8     37,175.5          100
that have calved
-- Beef cows                      27,892.0     27,607.2          99
-- Milk cows                      9,380.8       9,568.3          102      

All heifers 500 lbs. and over     18,129.9     18,016.7          99
-- For beef cow replacement        4,672.5      4,714.2          101
Expected to calve*                 2,920.8      2,962.8          101
-- For milk cow replacement        3,915.3      3,904.6          100
Expected to calve*                 2,500.8      2,497.5          100
-- Other heifers                   9,542.1      9,397.9          98


Steers 500 pounds and over        15,697.4     15,601.4          99
Bulls 500 pounds and over          2,009.0      2,014.7          100
Calves under 500 pounds           13,363.1     13,347.0          100


All cattle on feed                14,322.8     13,847.9          97   


                               2024         2025   % of previous year
Calf crop                         33,416.5     32,895.6          98

*Replacement heifers expected to calve during the year.

This article was originally posted at 2:21 p.m. CST on Friday, Jan. 30. It 
was last updated with additional information at 2:56 p.m. CST on Friday, 
Jan. 30.

**

OMAHA (DTN) -- All cattle and calves in the United States as of Jan. 1, 
2026, totaled 86.2 million head, slightly below the 86.5 million head on 
Jan. 1, 2025, USDA NASS reported on Friday.

All cows and heifers that have calved, at 37.2 million head, were slightly 
below the 37.3 million head on Jan. 1, 2025. Beef cows, at 27.6 million 
head, were down 1% from a year ago. Milk cows, at 9.57 million head, were 
up 2% from the previous year.

All heifers 500 pounds and over as of Jan. 1, 2026, totaled 18.0 million 
head, 1% below the 18.1 million head on Jan. 1, 2025. Beef replacement 
heifers, at 4.71 million head, were up 1% from a year ago. Milk 
replacement heifers, at 3.90 million head, were down slightly from the 
previous year. Other heifers, at 9.40 million head, were 2% below a year 
earlier.

Steers weighing 500 pounds and over as of Jan. 1, 2026, totaled 15.6 
million head, down 1% from Jan. 1, 2025.

Bulls weighing 500 pounds and over as of Jan. 1, 2026, totaled 2.01 
million head, up slightly from Jan. 1, 2025.

Calves under 500 pounds as of Jan. 1, 2026, totaled 13.3 million head, 
down slightly from Jan. 1, 2025.

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States 
for all feedlots totaled 13.8 million head on Jan. 1, 2026. The inventory 
is down 3% from the Jan. 1, 2025, total of 14.3 million head. Cattle on 
feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head accounted for 82.7% 
of the total cattle on feed on Jan. 1, 2026, up slightly from the previous 
year. The combined total of calves under 500 pounds and other heifers and 
steers over 500 pounds (outside of feedlots), at 24.5 million head, was 1% 
above Jan. 1, 2025.

CALF CROP DOWN 2%

The 2025 calf crop in the United States was estimated at 32.9 million 
head, down 2% from the previous year's calf crop. Calves born during the 
first half of 2025 were estimated at 24.2 million head, down 2% from the 
first half of 2024. Calves born during the second half of 2025 were 
estimated at 8.70 million head, 26% of the total 2025 calf crop.

REVISIONS

All inventory and calf crop estimates for Jan. 1, 2025, and July 1, 2025, 
were reviewed using calf crop, official slaughter, import and export data, 
and the relationship of new survey information to the prior surveys, NASS 
said. Based on the findings of this review, 2024 calf crop decreased by 
0.3%. Jan. 1, 2025, all cattle and calves decreased by 0.2% and all cows 
and heifers that have calved increased by 0.2%.

State level estimates were reviewed and changes were made to reallocate 
inventory estimates to the United States total.

DTN ANALYSIS

"After a gut-wrenching day, trying to wait patiently to see what was going 
to be unveiled in Friday afternoon's Cattle inventory report, the industry 
should again be able to breathe easy, as the report unveiled no wild 
surprises and mostly aligned with what was expected of the data ahead of 
the report's release," said DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart.

"There was some conversation before the report was released that some 
believed there could be a small increase in the total number of beef cows 
heading into 2026. But Friday's report debunked that claim, as the total 
number of beef cows going into 2026 totaled 27.6 million head and is the 
seventh consecutive decrease in beef cow numbers that the industry has 
seen since 2019.

"The total number of milk cows heading into 2026 totaled 9,568,300 head, 
which is up 2% compared to a year ago. That logically passes the 'smell 
test,' as dairies have been keeping more cows around to cash in on the 
beef on dairy demand that's been extremely lucrative in recent years.

"The other slight increase compared to last year was seen in the beef cow 
replacement division, which totaled 4,714,200 million head, and was up 1% 
compared to last year. Simple math tells us that a 1% increase in the 
total number of beef replacement heifers compared to a year ago means an 
increase of 41,700 head of beef replacement heifers throughout the entire 
nation. And to answer the question that's lingering in the back of your 
mind: No, that does not indicate that any sort of a meaningful expansion 
has begun.

"And last but certainly not least, the 2025 calf crop was estimated at 
32.9 million head, which is down 2% from a year ago and implies that 
supplies will remain thin throughout the upcoming year.

"All in all, it's likely that the report is found to be bullish throughout 
the industry, as the total number of beef cows declined from the previous 
year and is the seventh consecutive decline in beef cow numbers since 
2019. And although there was a slight increase in the total number of beef 
replacement heifers heading into 2026, a mere increase of 41,700 head does 
not indicate that herd expansion has begun, by any means."

For more analysis of the Jan. 1 Cattle inventory report, see DTN Livestock 
Analyst ShayLe Stewart's latest Call the Market column, "Friday's Cattle 
Inventory Report: 4 Reasons it Won't Look Like Cycles From the Past" under 
the Columns menu.

**

DTN subscribers can view the full USDA Cattle inventory report in the 
Livestock Archives folder under the Markets menu. The report is also 
available at https://www.nass.usda.gov/.